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Bitcoin Market Outlook for Week Ahead; July 12 – July 18

The Week Ahead: Volatility Continues

Greek Parliament is slated to begin voting on various terms that were reached in Brussels over the weekend. The Greece financial crisis has no doubt played a large part in BTC volatility and will continue to do so in the coming week. There is skepticism about  whether or not terms reached in Brussels will pass when voted on in the Greek Parliament. Chinese Market turmoil is a second geopolitical factor that could contribute to continued volatility to the upside and/or downside. Also, there are also some reports that OKCoin has been experiencing delays and intermittent outages as a result of a DDOS attack. Lastly, a significant amount of network spam resulting in larger than normal block sizes will continue to be a potential issue to watch with longer than expected confirmation times as we enter the trading days ahead.

We are currently seeing volatile price movement that has yet to find a strong trading range and will be looking for one in the days ahead. The most recent significant resistant/support threshold that we observe dates back to the end of June, at the $260 mark. We will continue to observe this as the next support threshold to test, unless a more stable correlation is observed in the days ahead following the recent rally. No significant resistance or support has been observed at $300, yet we continue to eye this threshold in case there is interaction. It appears at the moment we may be in a slight retracement of Friday’s price action, however, volatility in recent hours makes this very difficult to confirm, and also a risky call due to there being very little resistance/support interaction during that window.

Month to Date

In the last 10 days, we’ve seen the price of BTC/USD go from $252.40 on July 3rd – the low for the month – to as high as $317.99, an approximate 26% increase and a high for the month. In the early hours of this morning we saw a large tick down where in one hour, the price of BTC/USD went from $307.33 to $281.50, an 8.4% decline. Today marks the largest trading volume of the month, with the majority of which being observed with the announcement of the Greek deal breakthrough, resulting in a sell-off. The second most volume observed this month was on Friday, with the threat of Grexit heading into the weekend, resulting in a rally. Market Capitalization is positive for the month, up 16% to approximately $4.28 billion. A monthly high was observed on Sunday, of approximately $4.44 billion. Market Capitalization at the beginning of the month was approximately $3.7 billion.

Year to Date

BTC has now established a high for the year, capping out at $317.99 during this past week, about 24 hours ago. The previous high was observed on January 26th, when we touched $309.90. Our low for the year remains $152.40 which was established on January 14th. Market Capitalization is negative for the year, down 2.2% currently at $4.28 billion down from the high on January 1 of $4.38 billion. However, yesterday we set a high for the year in terms of Market Capitalization, briefly touching $4.44 billion before a steep sell-off in the early hours of this morning.